2010 House · WA-3
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 579 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.03% · Republican 52.97%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 47.028 − 52.972 = -5.944
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-5.944) = -5.056
- Absolute miss = |-5.056| = 5.056
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32556, race ID 4877 (538 database).