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2010 Governor · CA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.77% · Republican 40.88%

D+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.770 − 40.885 = 12.885
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.885) = -6.885
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.885| = 6.885

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32555, race ID 1278 (538 database).