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2010 Governor · AK

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.67% · Republican 59.06%

R+21.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.674 − 59.064 = -21.390
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-21.390) = 8.390
  4. Absolute miss = |8.390| = 8.390

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32554, race ID 1275 (538 database).