Skip to content

2010 Senate · NC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.05% · Republican 54.81%

R+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.047 − 54.812 = -11.765
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-11.765) = -2.234
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.234| = 2.234

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32544, race ID 1532 (538 database).