2012 Senate · IN
Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 38%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.04% · Republican 44.28%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 38 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.044 − 44.280 = 5.764
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.764) = 3.236
- Absolute miss = |3.236| = 3.236
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30821, race ID 1479 (538 database).