2012 Senate · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 876 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54.4% · Republican 36.4%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%
D+13.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54.4 − 36.4 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (13.006) = 4.994
- Absolute miss = |4.994| = 4.994
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30806, race ID 1477 (538 database).