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2012 Senate · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 832 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 38.1%

D+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 38.1 = 6.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 6.90 − (6.001) = 0.899
  4. Absolute miss = |0.899| = 0.899

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30805, race ID 1494 (538 database).