Skip to content

2012 President · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 901 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48.5%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48.5 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (2.979) = -1.478
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.478| = 1.478

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30777, race ID 688 (538 database).