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2012 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 901 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 46.8%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 46.8 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (6.001) = -2.201
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.201| = 2.201

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30777, race ID 1494 (538 database).