Skip to content

2012 Governor · NC

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 926 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.23% · Republican 54.62%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.229 − 54.623 = -11.394
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.394) = 4.394
  4. Absolute miss = |4.394| = 4.394

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30745, race ID 1263 (538 database).