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2012 Senate · VA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 975 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.905) = 0.095
  4. Absolute miss = |0.095| = 0.095

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30742, race ID 1501 (538 database).