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2012 President · MA

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 37%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.34% · Republican 37.32%

D+23.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 37 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.338 − 37.319 = 23.019
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (23.019) = -3.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.019| = 3.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30740, race ID 672 (538 database).