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2012 Senate · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 589 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 36%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.81% · Republican 39.11%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.814 − 39.114 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (15.700) = -0.701
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.701| = 0.701

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30736, race ID 1486 (538 database).