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2012 Governor · MO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 589 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 39%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.77% · Republican 42.53%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.770 − 42.534 = 12.236
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.236) = -3.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.236| = 3.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30736, race ID 1261 (538 database).