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2012 Governor · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,550 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 42.52%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.611 − 42.518 = 12.093
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (12.093) = -8.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.093| = 8.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30729, race ID 1262 (538 database).