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2012 Senate · VA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,497 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.905) = -5.905
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.905| = 5.905

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30708, race ID 1501 (538 database).