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2012 Senate · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,620 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 46%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (6.001) = -4.001
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.001| = 4.001

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30705, race ID 1494 (538 database).