2012 Senate · CA
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,575 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 39%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.52% · Republican 37.48%
D+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 39 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 62.524 − 37.476 = 25.048
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (25.048) = -8.049
- Absolute miss = |-8.049| = 8.049
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30703, race ID 1474 (538 database).