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2012 Senate · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.01% · Republican 45.28%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.008 − 45.278 = 5.730
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.730) = 1.269
  4. Absolute miss = |1.269| = 1.269

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30695, race ID 1491 (538 database).