Skip to content

2012 President · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,563 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 57%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 57.17%

R+15.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 57 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.383 − 57.167 = -15.784
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-15.784) = -3.216
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.216| = 3.216

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30691, race ID 696 (538 database).