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2012 President · TN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 697 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 53%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.08% · Republican 59.48%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.076 − 59.479 = -20.403
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-20.403) = 9.403
  4. Absolute miss = |9.403| = 9.403

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30690, race ID 695 (538 database).