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2012 Senate · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 702 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 49%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.20% · Republican 49.23%

R+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.204 − 49.231 = -3.027
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-3.027) = -3.973
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.973| = 3.973

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30685, race ID 1473 (538 database).