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2012 President · AZ

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,080 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 53%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.59% · Republican 53.66%

R+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 53 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.590 − 53.655 = -9.065
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-9.065) = 2.065
  4. Absolute miss = |2.065| = 2.065

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30682, race ID 656 (538 database).