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2012 Governor · MT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 836 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.91% · Republican 47.34%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.905 − 47.339 = 1.566
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.566) = -1.566
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.566| = 1.566

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30681, race ID 1258 (538 database).