2012 House · ME-2
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 325 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 36%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.19% · Republican 41.81%
D+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 58.194 − 41.806 = 16.388
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (16.388) = 2.613
- Absolute miss = |2.613| = 2.613
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30669, race ID 5077 (538 database).