2012 Senate · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 613 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 11% · Republican 33%
R+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 13.26% · Republican 30.75%
R+17.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 11 − 33 = -22.00
- Actual margin = 13.260 − 30.745 = -17.485
- Signed miss = -22.00 − (-17.485) = -4.515
- Absolute miss = |-4.515| = 4.515
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30669, race ID 1480 (538 database).