2012 Senate · FL
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,545 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 43%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%
D+13.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (13.006) = -4.006
- Absolute miss = |-4.006| = 4.006
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30629, race ID 1477 (538 database).