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2012 President · OH

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 971 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.979) = 3.022
  4. Absolute miss = |3.022| = 3.022

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30627, race ID 688 (538 database).