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2012 Senate · CT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,220 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 43%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.45% · Republican 39.99%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 43 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.454 − 39.991 = 12.463
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (12.463) = -3.463
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.463| = 3.463

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30623, race ID 1475 (538 database).