Skip to content

2012 President · ME

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,633 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.27% · Republican 40.98%

D+15.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.270 − 40.982 = 15.288
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (15.288) = -2.288
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.288| = 2.288

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30620, race ID 674 (538 database).