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2012 President · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 870 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 69%

R+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.75% · Republican 72.79%

R+48.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 69 = -43.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.750 − 72.791 = -48.041
  3. Signed miss = -43.00 − (-48.041) = 5.041
  4. Absolute miss = |5.041| = 5.041

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 697 (538 database).