2012 House · UT-3
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 232 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 18% · Republican 68%
R+50.0
The certified result
Democrat 23.39% · Republican 76.61%
R+53.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 18 − 68 = -50.00
- Actual margin = 23.394 − 76.606 = -53.212
- Signed miss = -50.00 − (-53.212) = 3.212
- Absolute miss = |3.212| = 3.212
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 5296 (538 database).