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2012 House · UT-1

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 194 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 15% · Republican 72%

R+57.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.69% · Republican 71.47%

R+46.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 15 − 72 = -57.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.686 − 71.473 = -46.787
  3. Signed miss = -57.00 − (-46.787) = -10.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.213| = 10.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 5294 (538 database).