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2012 Senate · UT

Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 870 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 26% · Republican 63%

R+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.98% · Republican 65.31%

R+35.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26 − 63 = -37.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.980 − 65.310 = -35.330
  3. Signed miss = -37.00 − (-35.330) = -1.670
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.670| = 1.670

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30618, race ID 1499 (538 database).