2012 President · IA
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 44%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.810) = -3.810
- Absolute miss = |-3.810| = 3.810
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30617, race ID 665 (538 database).