Skip to content

2012 President · IN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 54.13%

R+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.927 − 54.126 = -10.199
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-10.199) = 1.198
  4. Absolute miss = |1.198| = 1.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30611, race ID 668 (538 database).