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2012 Senate · IN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.04% · Republican 44.28%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.044 − 44.280 = 5.764
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.764) = -2.764
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.764| = 2.764

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30611, race ID 1479 (538 database).