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2012 President · OH

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,649 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 45.8%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 45.8 = 4.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = 4.40 − (2.979) = 1.422
  4. Absolute miss = |1.422| = 1.422

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30594, race ID 688 (538 database).