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2012 Senate · VA

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,069 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 50.4%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 50.4 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (5.905) = -6.705
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.705| = 6.705

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30593, race ID 1501 (538 database).