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2012 President · WI

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,210 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51.5% · Republican 44.8%

D+6.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.5 − 44.8 = 6.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
  3. Signed miss = 6.70 − (6.838) = -0.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.138| = 0.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30592, race ID 701 (538 database).