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2012 President · NH

New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,017 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 44.4%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 46.40%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 44.4 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 51.980 − 46.404 = 5.576
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (5.576) = -0.476
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.476| = 0.476

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30584, race ID 683 (538 database).