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2012 Senate · NE

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,178 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 53.6%

R+12.4

The certified result

Democrat 42.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 53.6 = -12.40
  2. Actual margin = 42.226 − 57.774 = -15.548
  3. Signed miss = -12.40 − (-15.548) = 3.149
  4. Absolute miss = |3.149| = 3.149

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30581, race ID 1488 (538 database).