2012 President · WI
St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.78% · Republican 45.94%
D+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 52.776 − 45.938 = 6.838
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.838) = 2.162
- Absolute miss = |2.162| = 2.162
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30554, race ID 701 (538 database).