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2012 President · MO

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,217 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42.2% · Republican 53.8%

R+11.6

The certified result

Democrat 44.38% · Republican 53.76%

R+9.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.2 − 53.8 = -11.60
  2. Actual margin = 44.383 − 53.764 = -9.381
  3. Signed miss = -11.60 − (-9.381) = -2.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.220| = 2.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30512, race ID 677 (538 database).