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2012 Senate · MO

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,217 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 45.2%

D+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.81% · Republican 39.11%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 45.2 = 3.40
  2. Actual margin = 54.814 − 39.114 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 3.40 − (15.700) = -12.301
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.301| = 12.301

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30512, race ID 1486 (538 database).