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2012 President · IA

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 1,174 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.8% · Republican 47.3%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.8 − 47.3 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (5.810) = -4.310
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.310| = 4.310

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30511, race ID 665 (538 database).