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2012 Senate · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 1,212 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 46%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.71% · Republican 45.87%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.706 − 45.866 = -1.160
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.160) = -4.840
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.840| = 4.840

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30492, race ID 1489 (538 database).