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2012 President · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 33%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.51% · Republican 35.13%

D+27.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.507 − 35.135 = 27.372
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (27.372) = -6.373
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.373| = 6.373

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30488, race ID 692 (538 database).