Skip to content

2012 House · RI-1

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 42%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.95% · Republican 40.82%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 42 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.952 − 40.824 = 12.128
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (12.128) = -11.127
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.127| = 11.127

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30488, race ID 5239 (538 database).