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2012 Senate · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54.6% · Republican 33.3%

D+21.3

The certified result

Democrat 64.81% · Republican 34.97%

D+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.6 − 33.3 = 21.30
  2. Actual margin = 64.811 − 34.966 = 29.845
  3. Signed miss = 21.30 − (29.845) = -8.546
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.546| = 8.546

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30488, race ID 1496 (538 database).